With the recent stop of US government in dealing with the P5+1 negotiated contract for preventing Iran getting nuclear weapons and the claim for new and "strongest sanctions ever" times have changed harshly. What does this mean? What will come?
Out of nothing
In on of the last blogs, I have written about my experience in Iran with banks and I was convinced that the small light, which came through the curtain, would become more and more. However, what happened was, that the current president of the U.S. draw back from international contracts, based on doubtful evidence for Iranian misbehavior. For me it came with a surprise as all the companies we are working with in Iran and outside Iran where happy to come back. Of course, things did not go all in the right direction and the situation for most of the people in Iran did not really improve. And yes, Iran is not directly to be called the peaceful hegemon in Middle East, more hey are fighting with their enemies like the opponent also do. From my point of view, no one is better or worse, Iran is juts one of this bunch of young people not knowing what happens in areal fight. However, to take this as a justification for drawing back the contract? I am not sure if this would ever be possible in reasonable business.
Thirty years` war
In recent times, many people compare the current fights in the Middle East with Europeans nightmare, the 30-years´ war. Just for a small classification: This war took place in Europe between 1618 and 1648. It was in memory of humankind the longest and most destructive conflicts with eight million people dead. It has started as a war between various Protestant and Catholic states in the fragmented Holy Roman Empire. However, with more and more that ties superpower coming in, the war escalated to a general conflict involving most of the European great powers. The 30 Years' War devastated entire regions and bankrupted most of the combatant powers.
It means, what is known as the biggest impact in European development started as a small fight between religious groups and grew to the maximum with superpowers entering the stage to "support" their friends.
Is it comparable?
Yes, that sound familiar. In the first glance. We have Iran against Israel and against Saudi Arabia. Right now Saudi Arabia and Israel becoming somehow partners under the big umbrella of USA. In the other side with Iran, we have no real "friend". There is Russia, currently allied with Iran, Turkey is getting closer to Iran by being against USA, but had many issues with Russia, even shooting Russian planes. Therefore, this state is unclear. In addition, China is doing business but not having any military stakes in the region. So right now, we have one superpower with two more-or-less accompanied states against Iran. That seems to be in a military conflict situation clear. NATO not to support Iran as long as USA stays in the line of Nato-rules bound Europe. Russia would benefit from a rising oil price. That means a broken Iran would be not a real issue for Russia as long as they stay in Syria.
This small analysis tells me, that we have of course the ingredients for a comparable war, but with the USA as only superpower in line with two strong countries against lonely Iran. Situation seems to be more a second Iraq trail than a 30 year`s war. Unfortunately for the region.
Assuming this situation and knowing that Europe is not able to do anything against US pressure, Iran has two options.
- Option 1: work together with USA, whatever that means. Then with having a deal with the president of USA gives at least not a war, but full control by USA and reduction of Iran as Israel and Saudi-Arabia want to have it. Not a good position and clearly not acceptable for Iran and Iranian government
- Option 2: oppose USA and find good friends in China and Russia accompanied by fulfilling the current nuclear deal completely. In addition, Iran has to open up and give women more rights does not support Hamas or other Stone Age organizations. That brings Iran in the position, that USA has no legal reason to attack and the price for attacking with allies like Russia and China rises that much, that even USA will not start this adventure.
What will Iran do?
I guess they come up with Option 3 and do silly things like threatening USA or Israel, continuing their warfare in Syria and other countries and then USA will find a reason to attack. Then we have worst scenario, a weak Iran with no friends against a superpower and his two friends.
I hope for peace as we love the country, part of family lives there and our business just grows and grows and I really want to be there also in the next years and enjoy Nou Ruz days in Tehran...cross fingers people!
Yours K-Street6 Team